Diego Miranda

Independent analyst. No consensus, no conflicts of interest. Not a bank, not a think tank, not sponsored.

Apr 22, 2026

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7 min read

Twenty-one fires in fifty-three days

21 incidents across 8 countries, running at roughly 3× the annualised global baseline, and the most interesting reading is neither sabotage nor coincidence.

Diego Miranda

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Apr 19, 2026

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20 min read

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Six weeks of war exposed a pattern that was always there.

Diego Miranda

Apr 19, 2026

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7 min read

When the loop runs out of doors

Eight days from a central bank meeting where every clean exit has already been closed.

Diego Miranda

Apr 12, 2026

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25 min read

3.17%

The headline number every research desk quotes. Four layers of architecture keeping it there.

Diego Miranda

Apr 12, 2026

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28 min read

Every battle is won before it is fought

The talks failed. The damage doesn't need them to succeed.

Diego Miranda

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away

Apr 7, 2026

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10 min read

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away

A two-week ceasefire formalises the very architecture it was supposed to dismantle.

Diego Miranda

Apr 5, 2026

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26 min read

Thirty days of inventory

Helium, bromine, neon, tungsten. Three from Hormuz, one from Beijing.

Diego Miranda

You want it to be one way. But it's the other way

Apr 5, 2026

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32 min read

You want it to be one way. But it's the other way

$141 per barrel at the port. $108 on the screen. One of them is wrong.

Diego Miranda

Mar 31, 2026

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7 min read

Facts are stubborn things

The USDA just confirmed the acreage shift — but the disruption expressed as substitution, not collapse, and the full scope is wider than corn.

Diego Miranda

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king

Mar 30, 2026

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9 min read

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king

An Iranian ballistic missile struck the industrial zone that processes one-third of the world's bromine — and nobody noticed

Diego Miranda

How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly

Mar 29, 2026

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19 min read

How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly

The second-order effects have begun, the financial system is cracking, and nobody is watching

Diego Miranda

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

Mar 29, 2026

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31 min read

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

The cascade reaches the energy grid, the construction site, and the insurance contract that closed Hormuz before Iran's navy did

Diego Miranda

Assets measured in years, degraded by weapons measured in hours.

Mar 29, 2026

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19 min read

Assets measured in years, degraded by weapons measured in hours.

Political fracture, 20 disruption vectors, infrastructure replacement timelines, and Market Signals

Diego Miranda

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare

Mar 29, 2026

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30 min read

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare

Iran declined $14 billion in sanctions relief mid-war — the clearest leverage signal of the entire conflict

Diego Miranda

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results

Mar 19, 2026

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7 min read

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results

The F-35 story isn't about Iranian air defence. It's about what happens when a $100 million aircraft absorbs a hit and flies home anyway

Diego Miranda

Mar 17, 2026

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4 min read

I came in at the end. The best is over

Iran isn't just closing a strait. It's dismantling infrastructure that took decades to build and will take decades to replace

Diego Miranda

Things will not calm down. They will, in fact, calm up

Mar 15, 2026

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10 min read

Things will not calm down. They will, in fact, calm up

When the world's sole superpower needs to ask for help reopening a shipping lane, the lane stays closed.

Diego Miranda

Diego Miranda

Twenty-one fires in fifty-three days

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

When the loop runs out of doors

3.17%

Every battle is won before it is fought

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, it doesn't go away

Thirty days of inventory

You want it to be one way. But it's the other way

Facts are stubborn things

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king

How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

Assets measured in years, degraded by weapons measured in hours.

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results

I came in at the end. The best is over

Things will not calm down. They will, in fact, calm up

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