CURRENT EDITION
Apr 12, 2026
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28 min read
The talks failed. The damage doesn't need them to succeed.
25 min read
The headline number every research desk quotes. Four layers of architecture keeping it there.
Apr 7, 2026
10 min read
A two-week ceasefire formalises the very architecture it was supposed to dismantle.
Apr 5, 2026
26 min read
Helium, bromine, neon, tungsten. Three from Hormuz, one from Beijing.
$141 per barrel at the port. $108 on the screen. One of them is wrong.
The USDA just confirmed the acreage shift — but the disruption expressed as substitution, not collapse, and the full scope is wider than corn.
An Iranian ballistic missile struck the industrial zone that processes one-third of the world's bromine — and nobody noticed
The second-order effects have begun, the financial system is cracking, and nobody is watching
The cascade reaches the energy grid, the construction site, and the insurance contract that closed Hormuz before Iran's navy did
Political fracture, 20 disruption vectors, infrastructure replacement timelines, and Market Signals
Iran declined $14 billion in sanctions relief mid-war — the clearest leverage signal of the entire conflict
The F-35 story isn't about Iranian air defence. It's about what happens when a $100 million aircraft absorbs a hit and flies home anyway
Every Sunday — one issue, two parts. Built from the data up, not the narrative down.
