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The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

The cascade reaches the energy grid, the construction site, and the insurance contract that closed Hormuz before Iran's navy did

Assets measured in years, degraded by weapons measured in hours.

Assets measured in years, degraded by weapons measured in hours.

Political fracture, 20 disruption vectors, infrastructure replacement timelines, and Market Signals

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare

There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare

Iran declined $14 billion in sanctions relief mid-war — the clearest leverage signal of the entire conflict

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results

The F-35 story isn't about Iranian air defence. It's about what happens when a $100 million aircraft absorbs a hit and flies home anyway

I came in at the end. The best is over

I came in at the end. The best is over

Iran isn't just closing a strait. It's dismantling infrastructure that took decades to build and will take decades to replace

Things will not calm down. They will, in fact, calm up

Things will not calm down. They will, in fact, calm up

When the world's sole superpower needs to ask for help reopening a shipping lane, the lane stays closed.

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