Micron and Exponential View just proved the demand. This edition asks the harder question — whether it can be physically delivered.
The market sold the war premium and called it the all-clear.
The war is over. The disruption, the defeat, and the realignment it set loose are not
Two decades of treating productive capacity as a permanent inheritance has left the US with a revival programme it cannot equip, cannot staff, and cannot research its way out of.
The Treasury market has stopped being a market between strangers.
21 incidents across 8 countries, running at roughly 3× the annualised global baseline, and the most interesting reading is neither sabotage nor coincidence.
Six weeks of war exposed a pattern that was always there.
Eight days from a central bank meeting where every clean exit has already been closed.
The headline number every research desk quotes. Four layers of architecture keeping it there.
